As the year comes to a close, here’s some food for thought (but low calorie count!)–as it is a good time to look back at the year that was , and look towards 2011 , and evaluate what your goals may be. This spring, I wrote a blog post titled go forth and buy. It was intended as a call to ac
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My most recent guest blog post on the Tech Savvy Agent blog-all about the "new" changes to Facebook profiles ! If you are on Facebook, and concerned about privacy, especially after recent changes, and after watching the 60 Minutes interview- there many things you need to consider. Your privacy a
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How often can you go to Atlantic City for business purposes ? Apparently a lot more than I was aware of. My reason ? I went down for RE Bar Camp Atlantic City. So off I went on an adventure on Monday afternoon to attend . Returned home quite literally,at just before 3am Tuesday morning,and up
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I think a great way to explore any country,city or neighborhood,is thru its culinary options.Maybe that's a function of my love of great food ! Living in New York City,there's never a shortage of places to explore,sometimes feels like an endless array of cuisines. That said,from December 6- Decem
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Living in New York City,it sometimes feels like there are endless options of things to do. From museums to concerts,and at this time of year especially fabulous holiday window displays.... A few weeks ago,on Twitter,started an interesting discussion about museums and favorites-and we wondered : Wh
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I originally wrote this note,in the winter of 2008,and posted it on Facebook.I try to remind people often ,especially as we head into winter months. Just a quick note- for those of us who live in NYC- and are not aware-you can call 311 to be transferred to the division of homeless services. There
Take a moment-and help someone less fortunate-only takes a call !
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I truly enjoy reading the posts Fred Peters writes.And this week is no exception. Are you getting your money's worth from your agent ? Are you engaging a trusted advisor and partner who helps you achieve your real estate goals ? Everyone is more cautious, more data driven, more intent on getting va
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If you are a fan of reality television,and real estate-check out Selling New York on HGTV. The show was a hit in its first season,featuring luxe New York City real estate and the brokers who represent buyers and sellers in these transcations. Warburg Realty has joined the cast ,and some of our top b
Check out these clips from the upcoming season of HGTV's Selling New York-some of Warburg's top brokers join the cast !
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About a month ago ,I wrote about my thoughts on the select bus service that was coming to the first and second avenue M15 lines in Manhattan. In the last week or so,there have been two New York Post articles about fines that were levied,one where a woman apparently presented the wrong reciept and
A follow up to my original post on SBS15 service on First & Second Avenues in Manhattan
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Blogging for me was an uphill battle to start. I understood what was entailed, didn't think I could do it, or that I had the time. Took me long enough to grasp Twitter,but that to me made sense as a highly mobile activity.Being an agent in Manhattan,its often easy to feel overwhelmed by attending co
And thus began the new phase of my blog ! Suggestions and comments are always welcome. Drop me a line,anytime!
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Today is Thanksgiving Day. I believe it is essential to find something to be thankful for every single day.Whether its good health,or having caught the subway just as the doors shut-find something,no matter how small,to be grateful for,and maybe even make you (or someone else) smile. Some days,it
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Giving Thanks
Posted on November 23rd, 2010 by Frederick Peters, PresidentThanksgiving has always been my favorite holiday. Every year, at the end of our Thanksgiving dinner, my extended family goes around the table and each person speaks about what they feel particularly thankful for. This year I have a lot: my mother remains healthy and vital; I am still crazy about my wife after 33 years of marriage and we continue to lead engaged lives in which we try to give back at least some of what we get; we will welcome our first grandchild in January; our kids are both happily married and do interesting and challenging work. That’s the personal side. And my professional gratitude list? Here goes:
1) The Manhattan market had a good year overall, in spite of the lingering clouds of the recession. While confidence is still shaky, many buyers recognized value in our marketplace (especially relative to their other investments), so business has been good.
2) I have learned to run a tighter ship. Warburg closed two offices in early 2009 and I don’t really miss them. My wonderful staff, most of whom have been with us for many years, work every day in the dedicated manner which enables us to function effectively with 80% of the support people we employed in 2007.
3) Property is cheaper. More people can afford it, especially in this historically low interest rate environment. We are not selling exclusively to Wall Streeters any more, although finance professionals still make up a substantial percentage of our buyer and seller base. Attorneys, artists, doctors, actors, small business owners, corporate executives, real estate investors-we are working with a more diverse professional group than at any time in the recent past.
4) There are fewer, more dedicated agents in the marketplace. At the height of the real estate boom people flooded into our business, believing that a real estate salesperson’s license was a license to print money. Now most of them have discovered how hard the job actually is and have moved on. This leaves a smaller group of more professional, better trained agents most of whom actually know what they are doing!
5) The real estate agent has not suffered the fate of the travel agent. Statistics from the National Association of Realtors indicate that more consumers than ever use the services of a broker when embarking on a residential purchase or sale. With all the information out there in cyberspace, buyers and sellers need someone to act as an interpreter and advisor. That’s what we do!
Happy Thanksgiving. What are YOU thankful for?
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The View from the Inside
Posted on November 15th, 2010 by Frederick Peters, PresidentAs 2010 winds down, I am reflecting on the 19 years during which I have been the President of Warburg Realty (formerly Ashforth Warburg, before that Albert B. Ashforth, Inc) where I came to work in January of 1986 as the Associate Director of the Residential Sales Division. While the business has changed in many ways, the fundamental structure of how real estate firms operate has remained pretty much the same.
Our agents are all independent contractors. They earn commissions, which we divide with them in percentages based on their earnings history (the more they earn, the bigger the percentage). We provide desks, phones, computer and IT services, marketing and PR. We maintain our website and our iPhone application, making sure that both remain state of the art. And increasingly we provide training in both the traditional areas such as negotiating, working with customers, or handling an exclusive and the newer but equally necessary topics like the intricacies of Web 2.0 and getting the most out of Outlook 2010. As the head of any brokerage firm will tell you, this is a narrow margin business. While the established Manhattan firms have staying power, many of our smaller colleagues have been plowed under during the recession; nationwide, brokerages have folded, consolidated, or downsized in huge numbers since the national real estate downturn began in 2006. Many of the business owners I spoke to at the National Association of Realtors conference last week in New Orleans told me that they are losing money on their brokerage operations, and it is the offering of ancillary services, such as mortgages or title insurance, which keeps them afloat.
The rallying cry at the NAR conventions is “retention.” Seminar after seminar is directed at how to keep your top agents from jumping ship. For those of us who are lucky enough to direct and work at New York’s top companies, the answer is relationships. In the end, I think it is the same in any business. My agents, and those working for my top competitors, stick around because the powerful internal network of relationships which they have built . Many of the agents at Warburg have worked with us for 20 years or more, and I hope and believe it is more than money which keeps them here. They are a second family to me. I have enormous admiration for these highly skilled, hard working, unsalaried professionals, who rarely get credit when things go right but are almost always blamed when they go wrong. And I hope I am communicating that every day.
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Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Grand Central’s Holiday Fair !
Posted on November 16th, 2010 by Nicole Beauchamp
For many years,when I worked in Midtown Manhattan Grand Central was literally and figuratively my hub.Every day I made my way to offices at various buildings in the area -two that still stand out in my memory are the Lincoln Building,which is now One Grand Central Place and the Helmsley Building (such lovely holiday decorations,and often even musicians in the lobby !) That said,while most of the year it could at times feel overwhelming-especially if I was venturing out of Manhattan (shocking,I know) ,racing to catch the Metro-North,like clockwork every year just before Thanksgiving ,my feelings changed.
I love the light shows,and especially the Grand Central Terminal Holiday Fair. Grand Central is one of my favorite buildings in all of Manhattan,but add the fair and I will always find a way to pass thru ! The show opened on Monday,with the Rockette’s cutting the ribbon.
This year there are about 76 vendors.A great place to get unique gifts for those very special people !
The fair is open seven days a week,except for Thanksgiving Day. For more information head to GrandCentralTerminal.com
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Tags: Grand Central, holidays, Manhattan, Midtown manhattan
Filed under Nicole Beauchamp.
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Grand Central’s Holiday Fair !
Posted on November 16th, 2010 by Nicole Beauchamp
For many years,when I worked in Midtown Manhattan Grand Central was literally and figuratively my hub.Every day I made my way to offices at various buildings in the area -two that still stand out in my memory are the Lincoln Building,which is now One Grand Central Place and the Helmsley Building (such lovely holiday decorations,and often even musicians in the lobby !) That said,while most of the year it could at times feel overwhelming-especially if I was venturing out of Manhattan (shocking,I know) ,racing to catch the Metro-North,like clockwork every year just before Thanksgiving ,my feelings changed.
I love the light shows,and especially the Grand Central Terminal Holiday Fair. Grand Central is one of my favorite buildings in all of Manhattan,but add the fair and I will always find a way to pass thru ! The show opened on Monday,with the Rockette’s cutting the ribbon.
This year there are about 76 vendors.A great place to get unique gifts for those very special people !
The fair is open seven days a week,except for Thanksgiving Day. For more information head to GrandCentralTerminal.com
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Tags: Grand Central, holidays, Manhattan, Midtown manhattan
Filed under Nicole Beauchamp.
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
The View from the Inside
Posted on November 15th, 2010 by Frederick Peters, PresidentAs 2010 winds down, I am reflecting on the 19 years during which I have been the President of Warburg Realty (formerly Ashforth Warburg, before that Albert B. Ashforth, Inc) where I came to work in January of 1986 as the Associate Director of the Residential Sales Division. While the business has changed in many ways, the fundamental structure of how real estate firms operate has remained pretty much the same.
Our agents are all independent contractors. They earn commissions, which we divide with them in percentages based on their earnings history (the more they earn, the bigger the percentage). We provide desks, phones, computer and IT services, marketing and PR. We maintain our website and our iPhone application, making sure that both remain state of the art. And increasingly we provide training in both the traditional areas such as negotiating, working with customers, or handling an exclusive and the newer but equally necessary topics like the intricacies of Web 2.0 and getting the most out of Outlook 2010. As the head of any brokerage firm will tell you, this is a narrow margin business. While the established Manhattan firms have staying power, many of our smaller colleagues have been plowed under during the recession; nationwide, brokerages have folded, consolidated, or downsized in huge numbers since the national real estate downturn began in 2006. Many of the business owners I spoke to at the National Association of Realtors conference last week in New Orleans told me that they are losing money on their brokerage operations, and it is the offering of ancillary services, such as mortgages or title insurance, which keeps them afloat.
The rallying cry at the NAR conventions is “retention.” Seminar after seminar is directed at how to keep your top agents from jumping ship. For those of us who are lucky enough to direct and work at New York’s top companies, the answer is relationships. In the end, I think it is the same in any business. My agents, and those working for my top competitors, stick around because the powerful internal network of relationships which they have built . Many of the agents at Warburg have worked with us for 20 years or more, and I hope and believe it is more than money which keeps them here. They are a second family to me. I have enormous admiration for these highly skilled, hard working, unsalaried professionals, who rarely get credit when things go right but are almost always blamed when they go wrong. And I hope I am communicating that every day.
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Sometimes you have to go old school (ok. In truth its hard to dissuade my techie toddler great nephew *not* to want to play with my gadgets,and for time being he prefers his giant easel pad for drawing) !
What's scribbled on the card ? New buyer client,notes on different buildings that fit the initial search criteria . Product knowledge is key -yes we've got databases and such but the brain of a broker is an *immense* asset when you're looking for that perfect home or investment. Have a great Saturday !Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Over the long term,if you’re in a position to buy (finances in order,feel secure about your situation going forward),and have a long term view,this may still be an ideal time to purchase.And honestly,even from a selling standpoint,depending on when you bought,even if near the apex of the market,the possibilities of what purchasing power you may have as a result of the sale,could be greater now,than they were at the apex.
As 2010 is coming to a close,and 2011 is creeping up on us-what are your intentions and goals ?
Food for thought,isn’t it ?
Nicole Beauchamp
Warburg Realty Partnership,Ltd
O:212-300-1835 | M: 917-528-6501 | F:646-422-4039
Take-Aways From NAR
Frederick Peters, President
I am on my way home from New Orleans, where I have spent the last three days at the National Association of Realtors conference. While I was there I took a fascinating tour of the lower Ninth Ward and the surrounding bayous, so now I have a better understanding of what actually took place in the aftermath of Katrina and why the maintenance of the wetlands around the city, as well as the levees, are so crucial to the city’s survival and health in the decades ahead.
The conference was full of interesting information about real estate values nationwide and the overall impact of the economy on our industry. My favorite take-aways appear below.
Lawrence Yun, the economist for NAR, took the average of the predictions of 100 economists about the years ahead for existing home sales and arrived at the following (Mr. Yun says that even though individual economists are almost always wrong, averaging their predictions shows an uncanny prescience):
· Price increase in real estate during 2011: .78%
· Price increase in real estate during 2012: 2.3%
I love it when 100 economists overall agree with me that we are looking forward to a year with almost no price appreciation! As we all know, real estate is local so in New York, if bonuses are good, we may do a little better. But I do not think we are looking at substantial price growth until we have more consumer confidence and better job growth.
Mr. Yun also informed us that the Consumer Price Index for 2010 is a mere 1.1%. While this is a historically low number, it reflects the fact that that nationally, real estate prices continued to fall throughout much of the year, thus exerting downward pressure on the other elements of the CPI (this made me once again relieved to be a broker in New York, where 2010 saw modest but genuine gains in residential real estate values). The Producer Price Index for crude products, including many raw materials for manufacturing and food production, is at 20%. If prices in the crude products sector continue escalating at that rate, inflation and higher interest rates are inevitable, regardless of the Fed’s desire to stimulate the economy with cheap money.
Mr. Yun predicts that mortgage rates will remain around 5% on average through 2011, and then up to 5.5% in 2012. But he cautioned that continued growth in the deficit is a real wild card and could affect both the economy and interest rates in unpredictable ways.
For today we know that mortgage rates for most products are below 5% and that since the end of the third quarter of 2000 the Dow is up 7.5% (10,650 in 2000 vs 11,407 today), the S & P is down 15% (1436 in 2000 vs 1223 today), the NASDAQ is down 30% (3672 in 2000 vs 2580 today) and real estate in Manhattan has appreciated 40% or more during the same period. Please draw your own conclusions.
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Had a great day yesterday. One of those silently busy ones. Started out at NYC Real Estate Expo. I only had time to attend one session-wasnt able to make it back. But it was good to have caught the REBNY panel discussing the residential market. Some great insight ,from the board perspective (Steven Spinola ) from a general brokerage perspective (Diane Ramirez of Halstead was there) and from broker/agent perspective (Deanna Kory of Corcoran and Wendy Maitland of BHS).
After this off to a meeting, and then some work, to prepare to take some time off for our anniversary. I was preparing to head to a social media seminar at Columbia (they do some sessions for free open to the public) being led by @jeremycaplan . Sometimes you can never be sure what you'll learn-but I'm of the opinion that even learning one new thing or meeting one new person is worth it. But then, on Twitter, someone I met at REBCRYE,alerted me that I won a contest ! A custom Wordpress blog ! Awesome. ( http://techsavvyagent.mobstac.com/uncategorized/thanks-for-taking-tech-savvy-... ) Back to the seminar- I did indeed learn some things, and hearing the perspectives of others trying to use an emerging medium was fascinating. Here are the resources shared as part of the seminar.Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
An oft quoted stat is that Facebook has 500M users and now it even has a movie, The Social Network, a movie about, well a social network,and other movies in which it is a central character as well.
How have social networks become a part of your lives? Why did you join any? If you have not, why not? I joined LinkedIn what seems like many moons ago, maybe 2003 or around that time .It seemed like a wonderful idea, and for many years, that was the only “social network” I belonged to. I used it heavily in my prior business. I never joined MySpace or anything else like that. I was reluctant to join Facebook, I only finally acquiesced in 2008, in order to play Scrabulous (I love word games-one of my preferred methods of relaxing usually involves a puzzle, or a word game, and I adore Scrabble-shall we play?).Slowly I rediscovered former colleagues, classmates, even teachers and recently as more of my family has joined it is another for us to keep in touch. I love especially that I can check it from my mobile device when out and about in between meetings and appointments.
Like everything today, I approach with caution, as I try to maintain boundaries between various aspects of my life, from the subsets of personal life to my professional world. Aren’t we all trying to balance it all? Seems especially difficult given how “connected” we are, email, cell phones, netbooks, iPads.
Not only have I reconnected with many people from various phases of my life, I have as well connected with many new incredible people using Facebook (and Twitter). An incredible opportunity to connect and discuss, with people within the real estate industry as well as out of it. The spirit of open sharing, and communication and support is amazing. Many of these people I’ve met at various conferences, and after getting to know each other via social networking, there is a foundation of trust, and transparency-I feel that I know them to some degree, being face to face, is always the goal-but these preliminary interactions add depth and color to who may have been just a name in an endless see of names before, now there’s that “aha” moment prior.
This isn’t “new” per se, there were many such communities on earlier systems, from bulletin boards to CompuServe and AOL forums. My approach is the approach I’ve always had; there is no distinction between “online” Nicole and “face to face” Nicole. My photo accurately depicts what I currently look like ,what I choose to share on Facebook,Twitter,LinkedIn and blogs, shows further insight into who I am, how I run my business and live my life.
How do you view social networks in your world? Are they a part of your world (and if so, how)?
Can’t wait to hear what many of you have to say (of course some of you will share your thoughts with me on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, or email or *gasp* we may even discuss over cocktails as the holiday season rapidly approaches!)
Nicole Beauchamp
Warburg Realty Partnership,Ltd
30 East 76th Street |New York,NY 10021
O: 212-300-1835 | F:646-422-4039
E: nbeauchamp@warburgrealty.com
Nicole Beauchamp @ Warburg Realty
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Here's an up-to-the-minute insight written by
Frederick Peters, President of Warburg Realty.
You can read more on www.warburgrealty.com/blog
The Social Network
Frederick Peters, President
I know everyone is not on Facebook. My mother doesn’t use it. A number of the agents in our office are suspicious of it. But with 500 (or is it 600?) million users, Facebook is an international connectivity phenomenon unseen in my lifetime. And increasingly the Web 2.0 tools (no doubt soon to be eclipsed by a Web 3.0 I cannot yet imagine) have become an indispensable part of both my business and my personal life.
As Mark Zuckerberg says in The Social Network, “Facebook is cool.” Although I am not on every day, I am on most days. I have built relationships with fellow agents, including some who now feel like friends although I have never met them. I applaud their accomplishments, worry about their surgeries, wish their kids a happy birthday. And when we meet on either side of a deal we will work together more effectively because we have created this connection.
The same is true, only more so, with my blog. Each week I use this forum to think about the issues and ideas which seem to me to inform real estate brokerage here in New York City. In all my years working with our staff to market the Warburg brand, the blog has been the most successful thing I have ever done. I don’t use it to promote our listings. I try not to write much about the company at all. Yet I know that, because the content often seems to strike a chord both with agents and with consumers, it has a viral readership way beyond those I send it to, or who receive it from one of the Warburg agents, or who read it on my Facebook or my LinkedIn pages. When I attend conferences or industry events, people I have never met comment on the blog. Attorneys I have not spoken to for years call to list properties with Warburg, citing the blog as the reason. So do others who have found me, and the blog, on Facebook.
When I am teaching I often tell agents that ours is a relationship business disguised as a transaction business. In recent years this new and in my opinion wonderful way to create relationships has become an enormous piece of our interactive landscape. I am not active on Twitter, but my wife has used it to build a vibrant dialogue among her peers in the not-for-profit consulting world. For me Facebook and the blog have been my networks of choice.
It can be a challenge to not overshare or undershare. No one will relate to a Facebook presence which is all business (it is after all a SOCIAL network) while at the same time our Facebook friends don’t want to know TOO much about us. But once we find our voices, the networks are a wonderful venue for enhancing credibility, building trust, inviting opinion and buy in from the community, and creating connection. All of us – customers, clients, agents, and those in between – can both delight in and benefit from the swirling, energizing, ever-changing conversation going on 24/7/365 in the ether around us.
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
One of my circa project notebooks ! This one is always in my purse /tote - its often the first place an idea (or listing description ) ends up. I take the pages and move them around as needed. Sometimes I circa punch note cards into this too. I call it my baby circa. Sent on the Sprint® Now Network from my BlackBerry®
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Upon reading this most recent blog –what comes to my mind is the Doctrine of Flux (which Plato attributed to Heraclitus).Heraclitus was known for three basic things-his flux theory (things are always changing), unity of opposites (opposites coincide) and that fire is the basic material of the world
Things are both the same, and different over time. As much as we want to hold fast to the idea that nothing changes, things change, and with technological advances, so has the way we live our lives, both professionally and personally-and some might argue with nary a line between them.
In the last 30 years, things have changed dramatically, in almost every business. In theory we are all making choices that will improve and better our lives (and those of others). For some people, this means no longer departing the urban jungle for a suburban oasis-but finding a way to balance it all…and stay right here in the concrete jungle.
We are open, remaining dynamic and agile, adapting to (continually) changing environments –are you ?
Nicole Beauchamp
Warburg Realty Partnership,Ltd
O:212-300-1835 | M: 917-528-6501 | F:646-422-4039
Here's an up-to-the-minute insight on Manhattan's real estate market written by
Frederick Peters, President of Warburg Realty.
You can read more on www.warburgrealty.com/blog
Things Change
Frederick Peters, President
When I entered the real estate business in 1980, conventional wisdom had it that sales were seasonal. No one bought after Thanksgiving, nor in the summer. Active sales kicked off on January 15 and accelerated as the weather warmed into spring. All the moms left town after June 15, so nothing happened again till after Labor Day. Then the market bustled along till Thanksgiving, which initiated the turkey coma that lasted (with a little tryptophan boost from Christmas dinner!) till the new year began.
I had reason to revisit this calendar-based view of the market recently while I reviewed our August sales numbers, which were more robust than those for either July or September. I believe that the assumption of market seasonality, like so many assumptions based on past experience, doesn’t really hold up. Changing demographics and life patterns in our environment have rendered the old pattern obsolete. Today Mom is likely to be working at her own job, so the chances are good that she is spending plenty of time in the city during the summer. Similarly, slightly lighter work schedules for many people between mid December and mid January have also made that a busier time for looking at, and bidding on, property. The rental market was always busiest in the summer, and the buyers of smaller units also tended to be active then, in both cases so they could be settled for fall. Now we have seen that trend extend to larger units as well, as the notion of seasonality shows itself to be increasingly obsolete.
The change in who works, and for how many hours every day, has also substantially impacted another piece of conventional wisdom: that young families move to the suburbs to raise their kids, then move back to the city when the kids are grown. Increasingly New York families try to skip that middle stage of leaving town if they can. Commuter life, as conceived in the postwar period, depended on a 9 to 5 workday and a stay at home wife, complete with station wagon for ferrying the kids around. Longer workdays, and the increase in two career families, have turned this paradigm on its head. Who wants to work a ten or eleven hour day with a train commute on either side? When do you see your kids? Who is spending the evening with them if neither of you gets home till 9 or 9:30?
The main reason we hear from people choosing the suburbs nowadays is financial. They WANT to remain in the city but prices in the suburbs have plummeted so that they can’t afford NOT to consider a move. The majority stay in town if they can. That way they can have dinner at home with the family at a reasonable hour and commute by subway, or cab, or on foot, usually for no more than half an hour.
Frequently our paradigms become outdated and we don’t notice. Familiarity is reassuring. But in fact things change, and we need to respond to those changes, as agents or buyers or sellers, if we hope to make the best decisions for ourselves, our businesses, and our families.
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
It’s Not That Simple: Are Real Estate and the Stock Market on Parallel Tracks?
Posted on October 18th, 2010 by Frederick Peters, PresidentDo New York City residential real estate and the stock market always move hand in hand? Last week I spent an interesting evening at The Real Deal annual forum at Lincoln Center, where I heard a panel discussing the state of the commercial and residential real estate markets here in New York City. I was particularly interested in hearing several of the panelist express their opinion that our residential market rises or falls in lock step with the stock market. While the two phenomena are clearly related, I think the reality is more nuanced than that observation suggests.
First, there IS a close relationship between the performance of the stock market and the city’s residential market. All real estate is local, and just as real estate in Houston is highly influenced by fluctuation in the oil markets, real estate in New York is very sensitive to fluctuation in the financial markets. Finance is our home town industry, so how it fares has a big impact on how the city fares as a whole. Tax revenues, real estate sales, charitable giving – all depend substantially on the health and wealth of Wall Street.
That said, real estate has really been somewhat decoupled from the stock market over the past ten years. We first noticed this change in 2000, when we saw the tech boom end and real estate sales and prices move up as the stock market moved down. People were disenchanted with stock in the wake of the Internet bubble and the appealingly concrete bricks and mortar aspect of property made it an attractive alternative.
That led of course to the real estate boom and bust, and now people are disenchanted with real estate in much the same way they were with tech stocks a decade ago. Fortunately for us here in New York, we were always primarily a first home market rather than an investor market. Our market dropped later and recovered earlier than almost any other in the country. And today’s lower prices, combined with the continuing tax deductibility of mortgage interest and the once-in-a-lifetime interest rates, remain compelling incentives for many buyers.
Both the stock market and residential real estate sales are barometers of consumer confidence. But the sort of confidence they require is slightly different. Securities, into which an investor can make quick forays, small or large, are highly opportunistic investments. Real estate is long term, especially today. No one is buying for a quick sale or a quick profit. So a real estate purchase requires confidence about the future, which is in short supply today. That’s why, even as the stock market topped 11,000 last week and the large bonuses forthcoming for Wall Street winners were touted in The Wall Street Journal, our residential sales market remains hesitant. We did not, and I predict will not, see a big bounce in response to the rising stock market and the record bonus numbers. Well priced properties continue to sell, some with multiple offers, but buyers have no appetite for a stretch. Before our market accelerates again, buyers want more concrete signs of recovery than a rising stock market alone can provide.
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Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Yorkville and You !
Posted on October 14th, 2010 by Nicole Beauchamp
People all too often say New York City is a huge city, and that it lacks that “neighborhood feel”.
I think of New York City as a collection of many small towns and I encounter that neighborhood feel everyday-across various neighborhoods (it can feel like you’re taking a trip around the world, with just your MetroCard in hand !)
Feeling like you are a part of a neighborhood, means finding that neighborhood that appeals to you, and ultimately becoming part of its fabric.
One of my favorite neighborhoods on the Upper East Side is Yorkville. So many of my “favorites” both new and old are in this area .
Here are some of them :
Corner Cafe & Bakery -great food and fabulous cupcakes !
Eli’s Vinegar Factory - when I ponder what I’ll prepare ,one of my favorite places to shop !
92nd Street Y- it’s just all around awesome, from cultural events, to fitness, to well-everything. I love it !
Mister Wrights- has been in the neighborhood for at least 30 years if not more. Across from the Rupert-Yorkville Towers, between 89th and 90th on Third Avenue. Superb service, great prices .
Parlor Steakhouse- on 90th and Third a wonderful relatively recent addition to the landscape of the neighborhood. Love it so much, even the wait staff recognizes us when we come in. It’sworth noting that the owners of this fine establishment were neighborhood residents when they dreamt up this place! They also are the proprietors of Blonde Brunette & Redhead aka BB&R a sports bar on 2nd Avenue. Parlor has become a part of our fabric, our defacto go to when we can’t decide where to go eat in our neighborhood-and it is automatically at the top of our list for special occasions,such as birthdays and anniversaries!
Uptown Lounge- Third Avenue between 87th and 88th Streets.Did you know they have live Jazz on Tuesday evenings ? Well, they do-something else I enjoy doing when I want to hear some music after long envigorating days, but still be able to walk home !
Crumbs- Yes, I have a sweet tooth. And I’m proud of it, and I really enjoy cupcakes…often (having TWO locations that are walking distance is heavenly !)-the Yorkville location is on 93rd and Lexington Avenue (there’s another location on 78th and Third…walking distance from my office!)
Barnes & Noble -I admit, I am biased, I miss the “old” Barnes & Noble, and by that…I don’t mean the one that used to be between Second and Third, I mean the one on Lexington. And I still remember not only when that one opened, but when there was a stand alone Barnes & Noble Jr-located just off Lex in a space which most recently was a Walgreens. I also remember the diner that was on the corner of 86th and Lex (and no,I don’t mean the comfort diner that was there most recently before the construction of the Lucida condominimum which has brought us a Sephora, H&M ,new B&N AND a Shake Shack most recently). Upside, they just had the groundbreaking for Fairway !
Shake Shack – ok,I freely admit-this is one of my newest guilty pleasures ,I love the shakes . I walk to and from the office as much as I can, on top of regular sessions at the gym, so I can continue to indulge. (And yes, most often I walk right past it, every evening, and very often can not resist stopping !)
Want to know more of my favorite spots ? I’d be happy to share them with you,the list can be extensive ! And if you’re interested in making Yorkville your neighborhood take a peek at our new exclusives high atop Yorkville Tower- not only will you be near all of these places and more, you’ll have mesmerizing views too from your spacious new two bedroom two bath home in a fabulous full service condo !
And if you see me walking around –say hi, don’t worry Bentley doesn’t bite and neither do I !
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Tags: 10128, Condo, Nicole Beauchamp, Nikki Beauchamp, Rupert Yorkville Towers, Steve Goldschmidt, Upper East Side, Warburg Realty, Yorkville, Yorkville Towers
Filed under Nicole Beauchamp.
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
As Curbed noted yesterday, this seems to be the week to break up with NYC. Sorry, but we just won't stand for that--and not just because we won't have anything left to write about, or because it will wipe out the equity in our co-op. So why should you stay in New York? We'll tell you:
- It's not L.A.
- It's fun to shock your Kansas relatives with how much you pay for indoor parking.
- Alternatively, you can book all of your ZipCars in the fancy garage behind the Dakota and not even have to tip the attendants at Christmas.
- Now that bed bugs have made movies, opera, shopping and dating out of the question, it's actually cheaper to live here than in Spokane.
- Small apartments are an advantage if you do get bed bugs.
- Moreover, since you work 80 hours a week, chances are your 450-square-foot studio doesn't bother you so much.
- You don't have to overconsume alcohol at home, as the taxi is your designated driver.
- Menupages has 9,165 menus for New York City, and at least half of them deliver
- You can own a dog without ever actually walking it, and no one will even think you're weird. (You can also walk your cat, and no one will act like you're weird.)
- Where else can you greet someone like a friend on a subway platform, then realize it's the guy across the airshaft who does nude Taekwondo on Thursdays, Sundays and alternate Mondays?
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
This is serious!
Posted on October 12th, 2010 by Frederick Peters, PresidentRecently the Federal Housing Finance Agency proposed a rule prohibiting Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks from buying loans in buildings where there are flip taxes (transfer fees imposed by and paid to the co-op corporation or condo association at closing.) I have heard two very different reasons for why they are doing this: first, that some developers across the country are using these flip taxes as a way to enrich themselves, and second, that the anticipation of flip tax revenues makes the governing Boards of co-ops and condos less likely to budget appropriate contingency funds for unexpected problems. While these reasons are not without merit, this rule proposed by the FHFA is nothing short of disastrous for our business and for consumers all over New York City.
Pretty much all loans made by the big banks which conform to Fannie and Freddie guidelines (in NYC, which has special guidelines because our real estate is so expensive, that means loans of up to $727,500) are sold into the secondary market. This rule, the moment it passes, will obliterate that secondary market. With no secondary market to sell to, the big banks (which make 75% to 80% of the loans in our market) will just stop making these loans. And presto! The loan market for everything under $730,000 will dry up. The local and savings banks which keep their loans rather than selling them can’t possibly keep up with the demand. So going forward, consumers just won’t be able to get loans for $730,000 or less in buildings with flip taxes. And let’s face it-just about EVERY co-op and condo building in New York City has a flip tax.
So whether you are a real estate agent doing business anywhere apartments are sold, or a consumer who might want to buy or sell one, this FHFA rule will have a big negative impact on you. Please write your representatives in government TODAY about this dangerous buckshot approach proposal (the comment period ends October 15th!). If you live in New York you can go to the Real Estate Board action site at http://www.RebnyActionCenter.com This site makes it extremely easy to contact all your elected representatives with just a few clicks. But please-DO IT! This is serious!
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Filed under Fred's View of Manhattan Real Estate, Frederick Peters, President.
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
I was fortunate enough to be at a gathering this week,where the manager for Family Programs and Cultural Celebrations from El Museo del Barrio presented to us ,her fellow members of Las Comadres de Las Americas about the upcoming “Dia De Los Muertos” celebration. A few others also shared their traditions related to this holiday and its origins.
If you have not been to El Museo del Barrio in a long time-or not at all,you may not realize what a wonderful new look they have.They undertook an enormous renovation which was completed last year,I remember going to the opening festivities and they were simply fabulous !
The third Saturday of every month,they have free admission-and events targeted for all age groups.
Great event to learn about Mexico’s 3000 year old tradition about how they commemorate their friends and relatives who have passed away.We were learning about the altar that was comissioned for this years event,and how it is also a public alter-so you may bring a note or a photo to be placed there as well.
This celebration will include a musicial procession thru Central Park,concerts,face painting,arts and crafts ,story time and much more.
Many great places to eat,also the Museum of the City of New York is right across from El Museo del Barrio,as well as Central Park’s Conservatory Gardens.
A great way to spend a day !
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Tags: community events, Museums
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
‘tis the season of quarterly reports. The last few days firms released their heavily anticipated reports-here our CEO’s market review !
And this is a pretty good two sentence capture : “That said, we have been lucky in New York: our residential real estate market was late to be hit and early to recover in the recent recession. We at Warburg have confidence in that recovery, gradual and halting as it may be, so we see stability with minimal price growth ahead. “
In my opinion, we should want to see gradual stability and growth, we certainly do want to end up in another overblown bubble situation.
If you have any additional questions, or curiosities about the market, feel free to email,call,tweet,facebook,link…well you get the picture ! J
Nicole Beauchamp
Warburg Realty
O:212-300-1835 | M: 917-528-6501 | F:646-422-4039
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Warburg Realty Third Quarter 2010 Market Review
Frederick Peters
President, Warburg Realty
2010 has been a year of contradictions for Manhattan real estate and the third quarter embodied many of these contradictions. We saw a slow summer market which nonetheless featured several high profile, high priced sales; we saw interest rates devolving to their lowest point in a generation; we saw the rental market weaken; and in spite of everything as we move into the fourth quarter we have an overall market which, like the old Timex ad, “takes a lickin’ and keeps on tickin.’”
By June 30th our market had slowed considerably from its active pace earlier in the year, as the beginning of summer coincided with worries about the global economy. Sales remained sluggish throughout July in our marketplace, as buyers in all categories once again adopted the wait and see attitude which had characterized their behavior in late 2008 and much of 2009. Interestingly August was slightly better, in spite of the fact that the stock market was swooning during much of the month. There continued to be little inventory, with nothing new coming to the market, and contract signings picked up from July; some sellers saw the confluence of low interest rates and the possibility of higher capital gains taxes in 2011 as indicators that the moment to make a deal had arrived. At the same time brokers began to become aware of a countervailing trend, which grew in September, and which once again harkened back to the months after Lehman Brothers collapsed: a lack of similar perception between buyers and sellers about value. In September, as the stock market and inventory both rose, this trend gained momentum. Many sellers believe the market is strong, and there is little reason for them to compromise about prices, while many buyers, reading the data throughout the media on the poor national performance of real estate since June, have been inclined to hold back or look for bigger concessions.
While the market behaved quite consistently from sector to sector, there were a few significant variations which I want to note:
· As I mentioned above, the rental market weakened over the course of the summer. Ordinarily as sale slow rentals pick up, but in this environment that has not been the case. Some bigger landlords were offering to pay commissions (what we call an “OP” or “Owner Paid” deal) which the industry had not seen very much in 2010. Demand seemed to be stronger at the upper end of the market.
· One and two bedroom sales were definitely slower during the past three months. These units, which had been absorbed briskly throughout the late winter and early spring, were definitely affected by more cautious buyer behavior over the third quarter.
· As is typically true, sales of six to ten room properties (and the loft market which coincides with them) slowed considerably over the summer, but activity has picked up since Labor Day. Seller ambitions have definitely escalated here, with properties coming on to the market 10% and even 15% higher than the last similar sales earlier in the year or late last year. It can often take several months before a seller is convinced that these ambitions are outsized and most properties are simply not selling for more than they did six to nine months ago.
· While the luxury townhouse market remains largely inactive (the much noted and highly discounted sale on E.70th Street notwithstanding) there is more sales activity in the ultra luxury sector than at any time in the past two years. Numerous sales in excess of $10,000,000 and several in excess of $20,000,000 occurred in September, suggesting that, even as uncertainty about the global economy continues, those at the acme of the financial pyramid have not had a bad year and don’t believe that there will be a double dip.
Looking forward, I predict that we will see a continuing but measured influx of inventory over the next six months. While there is no urgency in today’s market, and I don’t foresee urgency entering the market, I anticipate that the steady rate of sales we have seen over the last two months will continue. Overpriced properties will sit, but realistic sellers, many of whom want to be done by December 31 of this year to avoid possible adverse tax consequences, will command strong historic prices for their properties. No-one knows exactly how the November elections will turn out, nor how those results will impact the economy as a whole. Republican gains in the House and Senate will likely mean less legislation, and less legislation usually help the stock markets to remain perky, which in turn adds to consumer confidence across the boards. On the other hand, many of the Wall Street firms are looking at hiring freezes and possible additional layoffs. So the road ahead is unclear. That said, we have been lucky in New York: our residential real estate market was late to be hit and early to recover in the recent recession. We at Warburg have confidence in that recovery, gradual and halting as it may be, so we see stability with minimal price growth ahead.
For up to the minute information, please visit the Warburg Blog.
warburgrealty.com
Posted via email from Nicole Beauchamp , Your NYC Real Estate Resource
